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michaelhopkins
FM Editor
Member Since:
06 Dec 2005
Posts:82
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09 Mar 2006 2:12 AM |
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Results of the Inaugural FutureMonitor Global Trends Survey
In February we invited 8,500 people worldwide--the pioneer members of the FutureMonitor global sensing network--to take a survey on trends that will affect near-term business. The invitations went to business managers, thought leaders, and trend observers, from a total of 49 countries. The survey was completed by 1,402 of them (for a high response rate of 16%). This post will summarize what they told us.
Before reporting the statistical outcomes from the survey, some overall impressions about patterns that emerge:
- Vanishing boundaries between public and private selves (and a power shift as result?)
It’s no surprise that lots of attention gets paid by survey respondents to the vanishing boundaries within the global economy and the geopolitical world. The world keeps shrinking, and geography keeps mattering less and less as a definer of market. But another kind of boundary breakdown is reflected in the trend results, too: the breakdown between each individual’s private and economic life. The technologies than enable almost anyone to work from almost everywhere at almost any time is producing an environment in which the boundaries between work and play are disappearing--which in turn is altering the ways businesses relate to customers and the ways workers relate to businesses. The survey yielded much comment about workforce mobility, business relocation, and the ways that maturing wireless and internet technologies can offer more extreme workstyle alternatives to workers. Yearnings for work-life balance or “meaning” are rapidly getting easier to act on, and the effects of new choices by workers will show up in radically changed demography, organization design, work processes, and business culture. Behind many of the survey comments is the expectation that the shift of power from institutions to individuals is quickening. As one respondent writes, managers will need “the ability to identify changing personal values and needs and to have in place an organization structure that will enable the company to respond effectively and efficiently.”
- Convergence, of yet another kind, is coming
There’s plenty of comment in the survey about convergence of the usual types (e.g., technology convergence; and convergence of media, entertainment, and business), but there’s also an interesting line of discussion about what we can call “universal convergence,” for lack of a better term. The interdependent consequentiality of everything. Writes one respondent: “Business will find itself increasingly faced with problems that are not rooted in business, per se. Ability to assess and address these problems is the new competitive edge, and is where most businesses have blind spots.” Many respondents identify ways that once-separable trends and economic or social forces are overlapping and piling up. A kind of perfect storm of change.
- The dominant affect on business of social trends
This observation will in part reinforce the “universal convergence” revelation above. In an open-ended question at the end of the survey, respondents were asked to name the three “business, science/technology, public policy, or social trends” that will be affecting business two years from now. The respondents named 2,948 trends--many of them overlapping and repeated (239 of the responses, for instance, could be grouped under the heading, “demographic changes”). But as interesting as the individually identified trends--of which there were more than 100--is how the large categories compared. We separated all the trends into six main groups, with total mentions breaking down as follows:
Social developments - 698
Global economic change - 596
Technology-related trends - 589
Economic developments (non-global) - 510
Natural world issues - 392
Political developments - 368
If lumped together, global and non-global economic developments would loom largest. (The global category includes such trends as Asia’s rise, international trade patterns, and “globalization” itself. Non-global economic changes include such trends as outsourcing, increased consumer power, corporate structure changes, and the more challenging business environment.) But with those economic categories separated, social developments rise to the top as the leading contributor to near-future business risks and opportunities. The social category includes the “clash of cultures,” the quality of education, the changing work-life balance, and, of course, demographic shifts. Is it a surprise that social developments loom largest?
The Survey, Statistically
PREDICTIONS OF IMPACT
The survey described 13 potential trends and asked respondents to evaluate the expected impact of those trends 2 to 5 years from now on business generally--and on a manager’s attention specifically. The evaluations translated to a score of 1 for low and 4 for high. All but one of the trends ended up being rated at the 2.5 midpoint or higher, but there was significant variance, with the top trend (the effects of Baby Boom demographics) being rated 50% higher than the bottom one (the spread of video-game technology across other applications). Here they are in the order of their overall business-impact rating (the first of the two numbers), with their managerial attention rating listed second on the same line.
Trends rated individually on a 4-point scale in terms of, 1) each one’s overall impact on business in the near future and, 2) in terms of how much attention managers will devoting to each one in the near future:
| |
How much impact will this trend have on business, generally over the next 2- 5 years? |
Over the next 2- 5 years, how much attention do you think business managers will be devoting to this trend and its implications? |
| Boom(er) times--longer lives, livelier living |
3.5 |
3.2 |
| China--overhyped or underrated |
3.3 |
3.5 |
| Energy looming larger? |
3.1 |
3.1 |
| Information overload--extracting meaning from the noise |
3.0 |
3.0 |
| Design--the last best differentiator |
3.0 |
3.1 |
| Connected, for better and worse (the future of digital security) |
2.8 |
3.1 |
| Wireless sensors and Big Brother's birth |
2.8 |
2.7 |
| The reinvented organization--a revolution in how things get done |
2.7 |
2.3 |
| Compete? Or collaborate? ( A new source of advantage) |
2.7 |
2.8 |
| The death of commercials--the rise of...what? |
2.7 |
2.9 |
| That's you they're talking about (the rise of the blog) |
2.5 |
2.5 |
| Playing God (biotech's business reach) |
2.5 |
2.4 |
| It's all just a (video) game |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Worth noting:
Most trends rated similarly for overall impact and claims on managerial time, but there are exceptions: Boomer demographics dropped several notches when it came to predictions of management attention, while China rose. And, perhaps surprisingly, “the reinvented organization” fell more between impact rating and attention rating than any other trend--wouldn’t managers have to pay special attention to this trend, since organization design is fundamentally in their control (or, if not in their immediate control, then fundamentally certain to affect them)?
RANKING THE TRENDS RELATIVE TO EACH OTHER
After asking respondents to evaluate each trend independently, we asked them to rank the trends in comparison to each other, first in terms of business impact, then in terms of “impact on your working life.” The scores for the first question reflect their average placement rank. The closer to 1.0 a trend is, the higher it was ranked.
Trends ranked in order of "impact you think they will have on business over the next 2 to 5 years--from most impact (1) to least (12):
| China--overhyped or underrated |
4.0 |
| Energy looming larger? |
4.3 |
| Boom(er) times--longer lives, livelier living |
4.9 |
| Information overload--extracting meaning from the noise |
5.4 |
| Connected, for better and worse (the future of digital security) |
5.6 |
| Compete? Or collaborate? (A 6.2 new source of advantage) |
6.2 |
| The reinvented organization (a revolution in how work gets done) |
6.4 |
| Design--the last best differentiator |
6.6 |
| Playing God (biotech's businessreach) |
7.3 |
| The death of commercials--the rise of...what? |
8.6 |
| That's you they're talking about (the rise of the blog) |
8.9 |
| It's all just a (video) game |
9.7 |
To assess predicted impact on each respondent’s working life, we asked him or her to name the one trend that would have the greatest impact. As you’ll see, there were a couple overwhelming lead choices.
Now, thinking of yourself only, which one of the following trends do you think will have the largest impact on your working life over the next 2 to 5 years?
| Information overload--extracting meaning from the noise |
23% |
| The reinvented organization (a revolution in how work gets done) |
19 |
| Boom(er) times--longer lives, livelier living |
13 |
| Energy looming larger |
13 |
| China--overhyped or underrated |
11 |
| Connected, for better and worse (the future of digital security) |
7 |
| Compete? Or collaborate? (A new source of advantage) |
6 |
| Design--the last best differentiator |
4 |
| Playing God (biotech's business reach) |
2 |
| The death of commercials--the rise of...what? |
2 |
| That's you they're talking about (the rise of the blog) |
1 |
| It's all just a (video) game |
0 |
Worth noting:
When survey respondents were asked to evaluate the managerial attention a trend claim, “information overload” got only the sixth highest rating. But later, when asked to rank what would specifically have greatest impact on themselves, they ranked it first--out of 12--nearly a quarter of the time. Why the disjunction? The same might be said for “the reinvented organization”--which, in the independent trend evaluations, received the biggest downgrade between business impact and predicted future claims on managerial time. When ranked here, though, in terms of its impact on each individual respondent’s working life, it got almost one fifth of the first-place votes. Are respondents judging that other managers/workers are generally different from themselves?
Trends identified/added in open-ended responses
At the end of the survey, respondents were asked, "What are three business, science/technology, public policy or social trends that you think will be affecting business two years from now?" As noted above, almost 3,000 trends were named in total, with more than 100 unique responses. And even though no two people tend to describe a trend in exactly the same words or even from the same apparent angle, you can still find themes and patterns among the answers. The strongest of these themes are noted in topic threads of their own elsewhere in FutureMonitor’s general Emerging Topics discussion forum, but here is a shorthand list of the 15 categories of trends, concerns, and developments most commonly noted by sensor network members in the survey, together with notes on the main ideas mentioned under each subject. The categories are in order of how frequently they were mentioned (which, it should be pointed out, is not necessarily the same as how relatively impactful they were judged to be):
- Demographic changes
Broad range of trends mentioned. Among them: the aging of Western society and all the attendant fallout, the rise of Gen Y, and changing ethnicities in the workforce of the West.
- Energy and power
Two threads emerged--one focused on the rise of sustainable power-source needs and development, the other on the effects of energy shortages on businesses of all kinds.
- Increased connectivity and information overload
This grouping focuses on the effects of technological enablement--the proliferation of mobile devices, convergence of communications technologies, and general universal connectedness. It also includes the many negative mentions of information overload as a source of challenge.
- China/Asia
Mainly these comments addressed the effects of the region’s economic rise, though there were occasional naysayers.
- Environmental deterioration
A broad category, with mentions of such trends as global warming, climate change, and resource depletion.
- Globalization
Often mentioned by respondents literally with the recitation of just the word itself. One could argue that various effects of globalization show up in many other categories here.
- Health care
Closely tied to demographic changes, but mentioned often enough independently that it was separated out. Includes system dysfunction, cost problems, and legislative indifference.
- Clash of cultures
Covers any type of conflict that relates to social, religious, or ethnic differences--primarily the repeated mention of conflicts between the Muslim and Western worlds.
- Terrorism/war
Includes the many mentions of the impact on business that will be made by terrorism, weapons proliferation, or wars in general. Closely tied to the “clash of cultures” category.
- Technology development
A broad category, including mentions as varied as robotics, the shift from silicon-based to bio-based information processing, and wearable technology clothing.
- Biotech
Another category most often mentioned in label form alone: just “biotech.”
- Increased security issues
Includes comments on digital insecurity as well as personal electronic privacy. Plus a few mentions of actual physical security concerns.
- More challenging business environment
Exactly that, but for countlessly varied reasons--from increased market speed to increasingly difficult materials and labor procurement to increased overall competitiveness.
- Corporate structure changes
Includes many trends ranging from organizational design changes to work-from-home practices and the increasing use of contract non-employee labor.
- Decreasing Western economic dominance
Closely related to the “China/Asia” category, this set of trends centered on the themes of declining U.S./European economic influence.
What do you think?
Two kinds of questions immediately arise when examining the survey results. 1) Do you agree with the overall predictions? Do you think the rankings and evaluations are smart? Are there any in the results that surprise you?
And, 2) How do the predictions of the surveyed sensing network compare specifically to your sense of what’s on the 2- to 5-year horizon for you? Last--and most important, what questions are prompted by the survey results? What do you wish you knew more about after seeing them?
In the days and weeks ahead, the survey will continue to be mined for focused explorations of individual trends and trend categories. Are there some that you specifically want to hear more about? Just respond with a post below that suggests good areas for followup or asks specifically for more information about something already mentioned here.
Let the discussion begin.
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logan1939
Member Since:
25 Apr 2006
Posts:1
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25 Apr 2006 4:35 PM |
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I would like to comment on trend #6 Compete? Or collaborate?
(A new source of advantage). I have co-authored a book Collaborate to Compete: Driving Profitability in the Knowledge Economy. (by Robert K. Logan and Louis W. Stokes - Wiley - 2004) that develops the thesis that in order to compete organizations and indivduals must collaborate. So it is not a question of either-or but both-and as far as collaboration and competition go. As the world shrinks to the dimensions of a global village doing business without a large measure of collaboration will be impossible. Another thesis of the book is that collaboration is the missing link that has limited the success of the knowledge managment movement. Thanks for a stimulating article - Bob Logan
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davidmatthew
Member Since:
25 Apr 2006
Posts:1
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25 Apr 2006 5:52 PM |
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One aspect of the "China/Asia" topic which I don't see mentioned, but which I can see as a potentially significant mover of global economic investments is the fragility of the Chinese economic/demographic/political landscape. The tectonics of the urban/rural dichotomies mean that significant progress without tremors is highly unlikely. When these tremors occur, the exposure of enormous Euro-American investments will mean massive stock market reactions. (Consider, for example, the impact of Russian political steps on a substantially more limited global investor base.) This should be - but is not - triggering a 'risk adjustment' to the cost of global capital put into these investments.
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mukesh11
Member Since:
23 Mar 2009
Posts:1
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23 Mar 2009 12:18 AM |
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The mission of Future Monitor is to investigate the "two-year future," that is, to identify the trends of greatest impact to business in the next two years, and to explore their implications for managers and leaders. Future Monitor does this through a "global sensing network," an online conversation among thousands of business managers, thought leaders and trend observers around the world. The inaugural Future Monitor survey was conducted this year.
In an open-ended question at the end of the survey, respondents were asked to name the three business, science/technology, public policy or social trends that will be affecting business two years from now. The respondents named 2,948 trends. Here is a shorthand list of the 15 categories of trends, concerns and developments most commonly noted by sensor network members:
Demographic changes. Broad range of trends mentioned. Among them: the aging of Western society and all the attendant fallout, the rise of GenY, and changing ethnicities in the workforce of the West.
Energy and power. Two threads emerged - one focused on the rise of sustainable power-source needs and development, the other on the effects of energy shortages on businesses of all kinds.
Increased connectivity and information overload. This grouping focuses on the effects of technological enablement - the proliferation of mobile devices, convergence of communications technologies, and general universal connectedness. It also includes the many negative mentions of information overload as a source of challenge.
China/Asia. Mainly these comments addressed the effects of the region's economic rise, though there were occasional naysayers.
Environmental deterioration. A broad category, with mentions of such trends as global warming, climate change, and resource depletion.
Globalization. Often mentioned by respondents literally with the recitation of just the word itself. One could argue that various effects of globalization show up in many other categories here.
Health care. Closely tied to demographic changes, but mentioned often enough independently that it was separated out. Includes system dysfunction, cost problems, and legislative indifference.
Clash of cultures. Covers any type of conflict that related to social, religious, or ethnic differences primarily the repeated mention of conflicts between the Muslim and Western worlds.
------------
smith11
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