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TammyErickson
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:11
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28 Apr 2006 6:12 PM |
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Posted By AnnStetson on 4/28/2006 12:46:30 PM--MARKET OPPTY'S that are unexpected??First of all, Tammy I just read the Senate testimony (haven't read your book yet) and--pardon my Italian--you kick ass. Very good synthesis of what what's happening demographically and technologically and how ti fits together.BUT I want to ask a different question than most of what's been discussed so far if I can:Have you identified industries or service opportunities--markets of any kind--that will offer unexpected opportunity as the population ages. I mean besides the obvious (health care, housing, etc.) Are there some that you think are getting overlooked?Thanks. Great discussion. Wow -- aren't you kind. Viva Italian. Re the market opportunities, yes, I think there may well be some that are different than the ones everyone's been talking about so far. Most of what you read re business opportunities to serve the Boomers in "retirement" assumes, not surprisingly, that the Boomers will "retire." So the things most people focus on are business opportunities related to the use of leisure time -- travel, golf courses, hammock manufacturing, home projects -- as well as the inevitable focus on health care. What if just a bit of my optimism re how Boomers will spend their time is more the norm? That would indicate a host of opportunities around, perhaps, helping people start new entrepreneurial businesses (classes in entrepreneurship, accounting services for small business owners, distribution services geared at helping small business owners get their products efficiently to market, etc.). There are very likely to be lots of opportunities related to helping older workers re-engage with more traditional employment opportunities -- retraining, career counseling aimed at figuring out your second career, placement agencies specializing in this age group's needs. Across the workforce, I expect there to be a boom in "talent agencies" -- think of the film industry. Fifty years ago, the big studios "owned" their talent, just as most corporations have full time employees today. Now the talent is tapped on a project basis, via talent agencies, with the agencies increasingly putting together entire "packages" of talent in response to the needs of each film project. I expect that model will spread to more categories of employment in many industries over the years ahead. Education will be big across the board -- as I've mentioned, we're simply not educating our youth with the skills needed for tomorrow's workforce. Companies are going to have to take on a significant educational burden, and many will prefer to do that through the expertise of an external provider. Many people will look at learning as one of their greatest leisure pelasures -- I know lots of people who are looking forward to those classes in art history or the clarinet that none of us have had time for while working hard and rearing children. And, what about my view that we'll see a reinassance of charitable work -- any business ideas there? Ways to match people who want to give back to organizations that need them most? You can see my line of thought -- the key, I think, is to look beyond the obvious leisure opportunities (which will be there, too -- no doubt) to also consider work-related opportunities driven by these changes. Good luck!
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michaelhopkins
FM Editor
Member Since:
06 Dec 2005
Posts:82
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28 Apr 2006 6:27 PM |
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Posted By TammyErickson on 4/28/2006 11:49:27 AM
....We then worked with Harris Interactive to conduct a major, statistically valid survey of the US workforce -- we think one of the broadest that's been done, at least recently, to understand the psychodemographic drivers (why people work, the role of work in people's lives), their preferenences re what they want back from corporations (the components of "deal"), and how engaged they are with work today. Its very clear that different people view work in very different ways -- I'd say the most significant axis of "diversity" today is in our values toward work. And, you're totally right that this variation occurs even within the broad age cohorts we've been discussing in this forum -- Baby Boomers are a very diverse group. That said, we've tried hard to present and discuss the trends that are most generally representative of that group as a whole.
Values?
Tammy/Bob, your work on values is some of your most interesting material. And concerns about values (or "attitudes toward work," or "changed commitment") came up again and again in the FM Trend Survey--as well as in some of the posts in this forum, such as aTOE's just above.
So, QUESTION: Though you make the important point that values are incredibly diverse throughout all workforce cohorts, can you name 2 or 3 newly emerging values that business simply HAS to prepare to deal with? (Sorry to ask for reductiveness, but give it a shot.) And I suppose I mean the values beyond the ones we already intuit (wish for flexibility, for instance, or the expectation that work can be done remotely).
What will surprise managers just a few years from now?
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TammyErickson
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:11
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28 Apr 2006 6:34 PM |
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Posted By aTOE on 4/28/2006 1:01:25 PMFair point. Well, more than fair point, I'd say. I hate to be a wet blanket here--and I grant your thoughtful comments, Tammy, about the diversity within all generational cohorts--but speaking from managerial experience I'm almost ready to say "I'll never hire a retirement-age worker again!" That's ridiculous, of course, and I don't completely mean it. But I run a decent-sized co. that's partly high-tech (what co. isn't anymore?), about 480 emps, and I've tried hard to hire/retain older workers over the past 7-8 years. Two big problems arose: 1. Legal trouble. 2. Unpredictability of the olders. These are really interesting comments -- thanks! Its great to get your first-hand experience into the discussion. From a logic standpoint, I'd say that the issues you raise have to change -- realistically, we all know its not always that easy! I'm not an expert in legal issues, but I do think as a society we'll be re-thinking our definition of "old" over the next decade. It may not be that firing "older" workers will be less difficult, but our definition of what constitutes "old" almost certainly will change. Your comment about the unpredictabiliy of older workers is interesting. I wonder if there might be a way that offering more flexible work arrangements might reduce this as an issue? Our research is clear that older workers do not want to work traditional 40, 50, or 60 hour weeks. Part-time work (meaning part of a day or part of a week) appeals to about 40% of those looking for employment beyond retirement, but even more than that, project work (some time on, then several weeks/months off) is preferred by 50%! Perhaps offering arrangements that anticipate more periodic involvement in the workforce might help? Good luck -- and thanks for sharing your experience.
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TammyErickson
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:11
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28 Apr 2006 7:08 PM |
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Posted By michaelhopkins on 4/28/2006 1:27:18 PM
Values?
Tammy/Bob, your work on values is some of your most interesting material. And concerns about values (or "attitudes toward work," or "changed commitment") came up again and again in the FM Trend Survey--as well as in some of the posts in this forum, such as aTOE's just above.
So, QUESTION: Though you make the important point that values are incredibly diverse throughout all workforce cohorts, can you name 2 or 3 newly emerging values that business simply HAS to prepare to deal with? (Sorry to ask for reductiveness, but give it a shot.) And I suppose I mean the values beyond the ones we already intuit (wish for flexibility, for instance, or the expectation that work can be done remotely).
What will surprise managers just a few years from now?
Oh, this is a tough one! Let me try with my personal view.
1. The re-surfacing of long-submerged questions re "has my life had meaning" -- One of the things we looked at in our work was how teenage experiences influenced each generational cohort's assumptions about how the world works. When people hit "mid-life" what they are essentially doing is taking stock in their life thus far, and the extent to which they're on track to meet their teenage goals and ideals. For many people who are hitting that reflective point today, the teen goals that resurface were ones formed in the wake of Watergate, Civil Rights, and Vietnam: a strong desire for personal activism and recognition that the world needs to change. More than their parents' generation, for whom upward mobility was more likely to have been a teen goal, this group is seriously questioning whether the way they've spent their life thus far has had the impact they wanted to have. For employers, this often translates into a growing lack of emotional engagement with work -- a sense that more people are present in body only, with hearts and minds occupied elsewhere. At the same time, the competitive challenges in many corporations are not ones that can be solved by people "going through the motions" -- innovation, collaboration are activities that require all hearts and minds to the fore.
2. Tribal behavior -- Many people in the 35 and under age groups have a loyalty to their network of friends that many people over 40 find difficult to comprehend. Coming from a generation who went where the company said to go, many older managers are astounded by younger employees who turn down opportunities for advancement if they mean relocating away from their "tribe." I've seen this played out at every level -- from kids who won't apply to colleages that their tribe is not planning to attend, to a (young) CEO candidate for a major firm who declined rather than relocate. This value, by the way, also links back to the teen experiences of this cohort -- working mothers and high divorce rates, created the first generation of what many call "latch key kids" -- teens who came to rely on their friends for significant support.
3. Reduced desire for "responsibility" -- One of the statistics that I personally found most surprising came from some research done by the Families and Work Institute. They do the same survey every 10 years; one of they questions they have asked is if you'd like a job with more "responsibility." The answers have plummeted over the past decade! Today only about a third of ALL women in the workforce say they'd like more responsibility, and only half of all men. The most amazing cut of the data to me was by age: in the under 23 category, the desire for more responsibility has fallen from (only) 80% in 1992 to an astonishingly low 60% in 2002. On the surface, this appears to imply that 40% of all our 22 year olds are content with the level of responsibility they hold today! Surely a much lower number than the percent of Boomers who would have had their hands up at the opportunity at that age.
Those are probably my top three -- but it's a hard call. There are a number of interesting changes afoot. Do these three surprise anyone else?
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BobMorison
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:8
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28 Apr 2006 7:13 PM |
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Gee, a fella takes a lunch break and look at all the discussion he misses! Where to jump back in? I’ll add my perspective on the values question. In part by dodging it. I don’t think that the fundamentally important things around work have really changed, but their relative importance has. A couple of generations of employees in many organizations “enjoyed” job security, a guaranteed pension, and generous benefits. But it was in many cases a bargain with the devil – continue doing less-than-satisfying work in return for that security. Now employers have broken that compact – few assume a job-for-life, many have swapped out their defined benefits pensions, and almost all have cut back on benefits in the face of rising healthcare costs. Employees still care for (and often crave) these security elements, but if they’re not as available as they once were, other elements of the “employment deal” emerge with greater importance. Employees are now more likely to value – and insist upon – the basics: work that is inherently interesting and meaningful, variety in one’s activities, the opportunity to learn new things and grow on the job, and a congenial workplace (or a congenial network of remote colleagues). Employers who don’t offer the security elements had better excel at these basics, or the talent they need will go elsewhere. The congenial workplace presents an emerging challenge. Most employees really value what I call “the society of the workplace.” But if people work a variety of schedules in a variety of places, what sustains the connectivity and society? Organizations that figure this out will have a leg up.
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BobMorison
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:8
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28 Apr 2006 7:21 PM |
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Posted By TammyErickson on 4/28/2006 1:12:18 PM
Posted By AnnStetson on 4/28/2006 12:46:30 PM--BUT I want to ask a different question than most of what's been discussed so far if I can:Have you identified industries or service opportunities--markets of any kind--that will offer unexpected opportunity as the population ages. I mean besides the obvious (health care, housing, etc.) Are there some that you think are getting overlooked?Thanks. Great discussion. Wow -- aren't you kind. Viva Italian. Re the market opportunities, yes, I think there may well be some that are different than the ones everyone's been talking about so far. Most of what you read re business opportunities to serve the Boomers in "retirement" assumes, not surprisingly, that the Boomers will "retire." So the things most people focus on are business opportunities related to the use of leisure time -- travel, golf courses, hammock manufacturing, home projects -- as well as the inevitable focus on health care. What if just a bit of my optimism re how Boomers will spend their time is more the norm?
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Boomer
Member Since:
28 Apr 2006
Posts:1
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28 Apr 2006 7:59 PM |
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One issue that coincides with the “baby boomer” retirement issues is that if the IT workers. The IT workforce was established in the late 60’s and early 70’s and is now ready for retirement. I attended a market intelligence conference recently that estimated as much as 70% of the IT workforce for the United States government will retire within the next 10 years. This is resulting in a massive outsourcing effort by industry, but what is our government planning to do to respond to this? Oursourcing businesses such as IBM Global Services are partnering with 3rd world contries, such as India, to address the deficit in the IT workforce. Our government bureaucracy has been historically slow in responding to new technology and new techniques and would undoubtedly have a problem putting our government information in the hands of a foreign country. Facing a dilemma of these proportions is terrifying!
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TammyErickson
Member Since:
27 Apr 2006
Posts:11
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28 Apr 2006 8:05 PM |
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Posted By Boomer on 4/28/2006 2:59:39 PM
One issue that coincides with the “baby boomer” retirement issues is that if the IT workers. The IT workforce was established in the late 60’s and early 70’s and is now ready for retirement. I attended a market intelligence conference recently that estimated as much as 70% of the IT workforce for the United States government will retire within the next 10 years. This is resulting in a massive outsourcing effort by industry, but what is our government planning to do to respond to this? Oursourcing businesses such as IBM Global Services are partnering with 3rd world contries, such as India, to address the deficit in the IT workforce. Our government bureaucracy has been historically slow in responding to new technology and new techniques and would undoubtedly have a problem putting our government information in the hands of a foreign country. Facing a dilemma of these proportions is terrifying!
Great point -- thanks! The government sector is one of the most vulnerable to the workforce crisis phenomenon of any. And not just in IT. It may or may not alarm you to know that an astonishly high percentage of all IRS auditors, for example, are slated to retire over the next five years. With little in the pipeline to replace them.
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memrin
Member Since:
30 May 2006
Posts:1
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30 May 2006 1:50 AM |
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An excellent and pertinent read. I just finished the testimony submitted to the Senate. I am a "Self Empowered Innovator" that is quickly becoming a "Demanding Disconnect", i.e. until the environment either changes or I find an employer that will engage me. My efforts; desires to make a difference within the company have been ignored. My continued efforts have been categorized by management as a nuisance.
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