FutureMonitor

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: The unplanned, unexpected, unmatched disaster response

Frymaster — Tue, 04 Apr 2006 19:18:57 GMT

Author: Frymaster
Posted: Tue, 04 Apr 2006 19:18:57 GMT
Topic Replies: 17

Posted By Frymaster on 4/4/2006 7:16:47 PMYour anecdotal account has a solid basis in fact, TP. I heard about this U of Chicago study reported on NPR a couple years back or so. No date, but here's clip. (Emphasis is mine.)

Some important findings have already emerged. For example, the data suggest that the most important influence on a neighborhood's level of crime and violence — more important than factors such as race and poverty — is what the researchers call "collective efficacy" — that is, a willingness among residents to get involved with one another and to act for the benefit of neighbors and their children. Yet even a neighborhood with high collective efficacy is at risk for higher rates of crime and violence if it is located near others with negative environments; conversely, a neighborhood with low collective efficacy can be "protected" by proximity to more favorable environments.

Truly, the wisdom of crowds.

This reply is to tomportante's post of 2/7.

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: "Celebreality?" What? (Celebrity-media vs. military-industrial complexes....)

chrismeyer — Sun, 26 Mar 2006 09:06:24 GMT

Author: chrismeyer
Posted: Sun, 26 Mar 2006 09:06:24 GMT
Topic Replies: 8

Antonio Damasio (neurologist and author of Descartes' Error told me that the Soviet Union fell because the society systematically deprived its members of everything that provides physiologically positive responses, creating a world of negative reinforcement in which positive motivation cannot exist. He (with his colleague and wife Hanna) has just moved to USC to create an institute to study the brain, creativity, and behavior, which will apply neurological findings to problem solving in social situations including business; their research should have implications for how "soft power" can be best exercised. No accident that this should occur at the epicenter of the Hollywood community, and a waste that US political and military leadership would rather buy good press than earn it--Kent's helicopters are a great idea.

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: What is an 'Asimov Moment'?

chrismeyer — Thu, 03 Aug 2006 12:13:13 GMT

Author: chrismeyer
Posted: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 12:13:13 GMT
Topic Replies: 7

As someone who has used the Asimov quote in speeches for a decade or so, I'm delighted by the discussion above, which finds new (for me) meaning in "that's funny." While I agree with Lanny Goodman that Asimove intended "funny" to mean "odd" (in part because I believe he said "Gee, that's funny" But I fully agree with Peterluttic55 that reading "funny" as "laughable" gives good results as well. Research has shown that it is not a myth that many people have many of their ideas in the shower, hypothesizing that the physical relaxation leads to a lowering of people's guard and thus increasing acceptance of unexpected ideas--laughing at the unexpected could follow a similar generative logic.

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: Who owns the wisdom of the crowd?

edwardvielmetti — Thu, 16 Mar 2006 17:07:01 GMT

Author: edwardvielmetti
Posted: Thu, 16 Mar 2006 17:07:01 GMT
Topic Replies: 6

When you post here to FutureMonitor, Monitor Networks owns your words, and the words of everyone else who has posted. It's not ok per the terms of service to quote from here elsewhere. Ergo you would expect the network effects that you see on Flickr and delicious to be absent here.

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: The Shoeless Revolution

07174705 — Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:55:53 GMT

Author: 07174705
Posted: Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:55:53 GMT
Topic Replies: 5

In the scheme of things does any of this matter? The respect shown to the Whitehouse is based on the respect the Whitehouse shows to its citizens. One of the fortunate aspects of american culture is that its norms are often based on its historical migrant communities, so informality and the passion to challenge staid and archaic rituals is not frowned upon, but often celebrated. However, like any country, the US has its snobs, and one can see demarcation lines much more clearly in the USA than in other developed countries!

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: iPod and...Ford?

parkijo — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:53:58 GMT

Author: parkijo
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:53:58 GMT
Topic Replies: 2

It's interesting that an ipod is so iconic that it doesn't carry it's own name on the front. So where is the line between brand infringement and resonable use? If you didn't know the ipod was an ipod, would this be an issue? And by the way, have you seen the marketing spoof on what happens when "Microsoft redesigns ipod packaging"? If not look at: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4313772690011721857

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: The doctor will see you now--at WalMart

Sherry — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 08:52:18 GMT

Author: Sherry
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 08:52:18 GMT
Topic Replies: 1

I think that this is an important new trend. The question I have been asking myself is how liberals/progressives can seize on this as an opportunity to have business/government see a way to insure and ensure care that helps the bottom line. It seems to me that people associating good care with a visit to Walmart will do more than a lot of pricey advertising about good hearted Walmat people to make people feel good about the franchise. So I see this as "good works" as a way of "good advertising."

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Q&A with Tamara Erickson ('Workforce Crisis') on managing the next demographic wave

memrin — Mon, 29 May 2006 20:50:03 GMT

Author: memrin
Posted: Mon, 29 May 2006 20:50:03 GMT
Topic Replies: 28

An excellent and pertinent read. I just finished the testimony submitted to the Senate. I am a "Self Empowered Innovator" that is quickly becoming a "Demanding Disconnect", i.e. until the environment either changes or I find an employer that will engage me. My efforts; desires to make a difference within the company have been ignored. My continued efforts have been categorized by management as a nuisance.

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: A Q&A with leading prediction markets entrepreneur John Delaney

johnnyrocket7 — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 06:30:36 GMT

Author: johnnyrocket7
Posted: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 06:30:36 GMT
Topic Replies: 16

Ultimately, an information source such as this could be a valuable means of assessing market trends and enable even small businesses to prepare for serious market changes and effects. I don’t think this could be used exclusively, unless there was a serious increase the in volume of users. Due to the nature of anything socially network reliant, the information is only as good as the people and the source contributing to it. Perhaps it would be better to incorporate a system within your business that can work out the probability of a pre-determined question (For example “Will the revenue growth of your company increase by greater than 100% this year?”) using prediction markets, political change, and opinion polls. A collation of such information would have a really positive effect on decision making within business.
As an example, a previous post made reference to the online sportsbook and bookmakers community. Prediction markets could have an impact on the way that odds are calculated and the trends and habits of the sports betters, if they were used more widely. The example on tradesports.com is a perfect example of how if used more widely, could be used to determine opinion and effect gambling/sports predictions. This theory would mean however, that prediction markets would need to adapt and probably divide to become more industry specific, which I cant see happening.
All in all, I personally found the interview to be very interesting and well delivered, but I’m not convinced that the prediction market industry is the only way to go.
Thanks Johnnyrocket7

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Information Overload NOW (a FutureMonitor Exchange between Chris Meyer and Josh Epstein)

YGG — Sun, 30 Apr 2006 11:53:51 GMT

Author: YGG
Posted: Sun, 30 Apr 2006 11:53:51 GMT
Topic Replies: 14

[If I may jump in] 1) Part of the problem, as I experience it, is also: whatever very relevant data/ info/ knowledge I may bump into while 'surfing' the web, comes in forms & categories that have often nothing to do with my own (roughly: socilogy, psychology, management 'sciences') -- so I'm left not only with an (information) overload; but also with a feeling of confusion; forever looking for gangways between concepts & disciplines; and looking for people from those other disciplines who would agree to try & translate the different 'languages' in each other. Thus wanting to turn to networks.
2) 'Solitude' sets off alarms in my mind : as a consultant & trainer & coach, this is the most pervasive feeling I hear about within the (very different & so far very successful) companies I'm working with/for. I tend to relate this feeling also to the increasingly remote nature of our relations with people (at the end of the day I think human beings need actual presence of the others to experience togetherness... sorry for the truism).
3) So for me the question --rather than 'how to design the networks that win'-- is more 'how to design networks that bring belonging & support to the participants'; & that allow to make collective sense of what we get.

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Progressive Business

melblake — Mon, 08 May 2006 11:12:44 GMT

Author: melblake
Posted: Mon, 08 May 2006 11:12:44 GMT
Topic Replies: 11

Re the iPod, has Apple (or anyone else!) released any statistics on what percentage of its iPod user base's songs are in the AAC proprietary format vs. the open (ie rippable) MP3 and other open formats? I'd venture to say it's mostly MP3. But seeing the trend line would be very interesting...

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Evolved Marketing

jgunning909 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:07:30 GMT

Author: jgunning909
Posted: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:07:30 GMT
Topic Replies: 10

Kshannon...No problem here with a shameless plug! As a business consultant (primarily supply chain) I am intersted in viral marketing techniques that would link purchasers of transportation services (purchasing agents, VP distribution, logistics managers) with one another and with their vendors. Strictly B to B. Any ideas?

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Click Fraud -- Anybody Worried?

DennisM — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:17:35 GMT

Author: DennisM
Posted: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:17:35 GMT
Topic Replies: 6

Perhaps in response to the recent article or simply because the universe works this way, a Google newsletter I received today had this bit in it (see below). I'm not sure if the pasted image will show up or not. It is a representation of the reporting advertisers will see.

Dennis

"Over the past few months, we've provided answers to your invalid click questions. Now, Shuman Ghosemajumder, Business Product Manager for Trust & Safety, is back to provide details on a new related feature.

Today, we’re announcing the launch of a new AdWords feature enabling advertisers to have a much more detailed picture of invalid click activity in their account. The metrics of “invalid clicks” and “invalid clicks rate” will show virtually all the invalid clicks affecting an account.

These clicks are filtered in real-time by our systems before advertisers are charged for them. The resulting data will of course differ from one advertiser to the next. In addition, a much smaller number of invalid clicks may also be credited to advertisers’ accounts after-the-fact, as the result of a publisher being terminated from the AdSense program for invalid click activity. These will appear as account-level credits.

One of the most controversial issues related to the topic of click fraud has been estimating how big the problem is. Estimates from third-parties (usually from consultants who have a financial incentive to make the problem seem very large) have been both inconsistent and greatly exaggerated due to their methodologies. Advertisers have always been able to compare their log data with their AdWords charges to calculate an estimate of the number of invalid clicks in their own account. This new tool will make estimating invalid click activity much easier.

Remember, when we determine that clicks are invalid, you aren’t charged for them, and they don’t affect your other campaign statistics. You may include the invalid clicks and invalid click rate columns in yearly, quarterly, weekly, and daily reports. More information about the new reporting can be found here."

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: How pervasive will the Internet be by 2010?

lannygoodman — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 21:24:46 GMT

Author: lannygoodman
Posted: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 21:24:46 GMT
Topic Replies: 5

the commercial internet thus has followed the familiar paradigms of the management generation: the store, the catalogue, the shopping cart. will the generation raised on highly representational interactive video games be satisfied with that? certainly not by 2010, but william gibson's original vision of cyberspace seems inevitable for the long term as we develop a comfort with paradigms that are intrinsic to the medium.

in the short term however, with RFID, i wouldn't be surprised if by 2010 my refrigerator is studying me with deep neural fuzzy genetic algorithms and sending me emails reminding me of what i need to pick up at the store on the way home.

Findings -- the network's thinking, aggregated :: China--have we actually UNDERestimated its impact?

lannygoodman — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 21:03:35 GMT

Author: lannygoodman
Posted: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 21:03:35 GMT
Topic Replies: 24

agreed, a very interesting discussion. a few thoughts to add to the mix:

1) china appears to be well on its way to becoming the world's largest economy. the largest economy will support the largest military. so it seems logical that china will be able to back up its national interests.

2) we in the US suffer from massive cultural myopia. some of you in this thread who have lived in and worked in asian countries have a feel for this, but most americans (unfortunately our political leadership appears to be among them) have little understanding of how deeply culture divides us. this is a huge liability in a global village. in the words of anthropologist jeremy narby, "being bi-lingual is not enough. we have to be bi-cognitive."

3) china appears to have some economic and political limitations intrinsic to its culture, as does japan. it seems to me, as the youngest world power, the US has the least cultural inertia and the potential to be the most adaptive. however, every leader winds up a prisoner of its history, dragging legacy thinking into the future that prevents adaptation and revitalization.

we can sustain global leadership if we learn how to create organizations that are designed from the ground up to unleash the full value and potential of each member. the legacy of traditional "check your brain at the door and do what we tell you to do" will doom us to second class status if we don't. the chinese have too many advantages (albeit temporary) of labor cost and labor quantity for us to compete head to head in the next decade or two. thoughts?

Findings -- the network's thinking, aggregated :: The biggest business threats will come from non-business problems

peter_luttik55 — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 04:08:46 GMT

Author: peter_luttik55
Posted: Tue, 27 Jun 2006 04:08:46 GMT
Topic Replies: 8

From a systemic perspective this confirms that businesses are short term responses to the long term adjustment challenges of society.   The short term/fast feedback focus of business makes it adaptive but also short sighted. Likely to be surprised by the long term changes it generates through its actions.

Key question is how we can improve societies ability to respond more effectively to changes. Some businesses have found it effective to invest in examining blind spots, using among others scenario's as a search method (changing perspective also changes your blind spots).    Thinking problems through systemically is another way forward that has proven itself.

So if we know this why do so few businesses actually do it?     Aren't some of these value opportunities typical  "tragedies of the commons" that requires a cooperative respons?     Then the question becomes how to structure the "commons" such that businesses can effectively support resolving the adjustment problem. Individual businesses cann´t do that.   It requires collective action by businesses and their social partners. Improving the quality of that discussion may be most urgently needed.

Findings -- the network's thinking, aggregated :: How customers are learning to be different (in ways we'd better understand)

EngFear — Thu, 18 May 2006 23:18:25 GMT

Author: EngFear
Posted: Thu, 18 May 2006 23:18:25 GMT
Topic Replies: 4

You'd expect customer contact for B2B companies to be quite regular. But I guess it depends:
- How numerous & dispersed your customers are?
- How far up the organisational food chain you are.

As a rule of thumb, everybody in your organisation (esp. those back office folks) should meet a customer (i.e. someone who pays for what you do) at least once a quarter.

I suspect this idea would terrify many organisations.

Tho a recent study on tech buying behaviour states: "In general, input from the vendor’s lead sales executive and value-added resellers was prejudicial to decision success, whereas input from technical specialists at the vendor was neutral or positive."

Findings -- the network's thinking, aggregated :: Turning business into a game

hs96kmw — Tue, 02 May 2006 16:22:52 GMT

Author: hs96kmw
Posted: Tue, 02 May 2006 16:22:52 GMT
Topic Replies: 2

MMOG's are a really interesting topic. Especially with the Project Entropia game. (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4953620.stm for the full story).

Interesting that you can play a virtual game, where you can win money (that is dispensed in cash points) to spend in the real world.

"It allows people to access their virtually acquired PEDs and convert them into real world money at any cash machine in the world."

Findings -- the network's thinking, aggregated :: What are "Findings?" Where do they come from?

michaelhopkins — Mon, 12 Dec 2005 10:09:18 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 10:09:18 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

"Findings" is the place where the network's conclusions will be posted--"conclusions" meaning those trends, insights, or observations that have achieved collective consensus (or at least strong collective support). These are ideas that have been debated, discussed, argued, and sometimes even voted on. You can come here to see the most definitive wisdom of the crowd.

BETA-PERIOD CAVEAT: The "findings" posted at launch are only representations of the kind of content that eventually will appear in this department. They're derived mostly from results and verbatims in the FM Trend Survey, but they're not born of the debate and critique (and objective assessment) that ideas normally will be subjected to on FutureMonitor before being posted as conclusive. Please look at them just to get an idea of what "Findings" might be like when the network crowd is larger and there has been time for considerable discussion and activity.

Seen -- snapshots of change :: The Day TV Died

Blissfulpain — Tue, 25 Apr 2006 21:42:40 GMT

Author: Blissfulpain
Posted: Tue, 25 Apr 2006 21:42:40 GMT
Topic Replies: 16

Posted By cretus on 4/25/2006 8:11:04 PMTGLE's Omni has a 3.5-inch LCD display which is bigger than the iPod's 2.5-inch display. TGLE's Omni comes with a remote control which the iPod does not. TGLE's Omni comes with a built in microphone which the iPod does not. TGLE's Omni has a built in Digital Video Recorder which the iPod does not.

first time i've ever heard of it... I'd bet if there was a poll about several devices, in the format of 'what would you buy', there'd be a large trend towards people picking the device they 'know about' or have heard about most often, rather then the device that has the most features if the prices were similar.and on top of that the ipod created something of a standard device that other companies could hop onto and create addons for, so that generates even more buzz and by-product advertising.

Seen -- snapshots of change :: The Coin-Operated Tomorrow

ebedell — Fri, 10 Mar 2006 20:11:24 GMT

Author: ebedell
Posted: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 20:11:24 GMT
Topic Replies: 10

processes occuring without human intervention, this machine is a peek at what comes next--fully automated delivery. As Master Card and others introduce their swipe-at-a-distance pay passes, the disembodyment of purchase will take another step

As 'virtual credit cards' and 'mobile phone wallets' continue to expand beyond Europe and Asia, we may see more of this 'disembodyment of puchase' here in the States. But, there are still some questions...

Will The U.S. Embrace Cell-Phone-As-Wallet? -- http://www.informationweek.com/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=NTHPVXTR3MQDQQSNDBGCKH0CJUMEKJVN?articleID=180204073

Mobile phones for cash, tickets, transactions, keys... -- http://www.eurotechnology.com/walletphone/

Nokia and MasterCard test mobile phone wallet -- http://www.out-law.com/page-3557

Nokia Phones with Wallet -- http://www.nokia.ie/nokia/0,8764,29296,00.html

Seen -- snapshots of change :: Google Mash Up

Blissfulpain — Wed, 26 Apr 2006 15:33:16 GMT

Author: Blissfulpain
Posted: Wed, 26 Apr 2006 15:33:16 GMT
Topic Replies: 5

I found one

Google Earth Real Estate

Seen -- snapshots of change :: Audio Book

Blissfulpain — Tue, 25 Apr 2006 14:26:26 GMT

Author: Blissfulpain
Posted: Tue, 25 Apr 2006 14:26:26 GMT
Topic Replies: 2

Price point is the primary detractor, since you can buy a casset (CD?) or get one from a local library for much cheaper.secondly, it's 'too specific'. The future hot-technologies will be 'convergent' products, not divergent like this one, which tries to give you a single item with a single use.It would be better if:- It was a tablet PC, opened like a book and had LCD screens that showed 'pages'- Had audio capability (read it when you have a chance to sit down in a comfy chair, listen when your're low on batteries or on-the-move- 'buy' the books online. You purchase the file through Itunes (pre-existing software that is already proven as working), the purchase includes both text for the display and Audio compenents.Price of the tablet PC- 29.99- price per book (audio/text file) ~$3

Seen -- snapshots of change :: One man's spam is another man's art.

chrismeyer — Thu, 09 Nov 2006 00:08:55 GMT

Author: chrismeyer
Posted: Thu, 09 Nov 2006 00:08:55 GMT
Topic Replies: 2

This thread seems to touch two ideas: William Gibson's vision of software unfolding in cyberspace described in Neuromancer, and the idea that the patterns generated by our economy/society represent data that can be understood in ways other than tables of numbers from the NBER, BLS, and Dept. of Commerce. Certainly one can see petterns in the flight data; a simulation of Southwest Airlines' cargo operations traced their flights with each leaving a trail whose width signified how much cargo was carried on that flight, and whose color indicated how profitable that cargo load had been. One could see at a glance what was happening, or watch it unfold during a day.

Is there a sofware offering that makes it easy to drive false-color imaging, graphing, charting of arbitrarily chosen data feeds? Visual Technorati?

Seen -- snapshots of change :: The next computer-body interface

mkb — Tue, 23 May 2006 22:36:23 GMT

Author: mkb
Posted: Tue, 23 May 2006 22:36:23 GMT
Topic Replies: 2

No, I don't think you were overthinking it. What I do think is that we just saw another example of science-fiction morphing into fact (which it seems to do with some regularity). How often have we seen/ read about interfaces like this in the past? Admittedly, most of the folks developing this whiz-bang technology were reading Heinlen, Dickinson, et al before they even hit puberty, and hence they were inspired (biased?) towards certain ideas, but still, ain't it interesin'? The thing is, is this just a step towards 3-d holography displays as UI's? Maybe this will be the interface - our new desktop, if you will, with interactive, 3d image floating above to display information/ avatars? No more stale computer labs - how about rooms you can walk into, and right away your actions are part of the machine, which is displayed all around you. The way you walk, gesture, all manipulating the data. All of this, and you never need to plug yourself in via some physical tether.

Golly, ain't life a treat?

Seen -- snapshots of change :: What is "Seen?"

michaelhopkins — Thu, 15 Dec 2005 23:43:46 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 23:43:46 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

"Seen": visual evidence of change
Send us your snapshot now!

"Seen" is a forum for posting and discussing visual evidence of change--simple snapshots, usually, probably most often taken with cellphone cameras. Post-beta, the photos all will come from FM sensor network members (ideally they'll come from network members during beta, as well--but the charter group is so small that that may not work).

Think of these pictures as just another way for you to share something you've observed that raises a question about where we're headed, or that tells us something about it.

For now, photos can be posted for public view here only by FutureMonitor editors, but it's easy to submit them for consideration. Simply go to the "Seen" photo on the home page and click the "Submit a SEEN pic" link just beneath it. You'll be able to upload your digital picture right there; please also tell us why you took it and/or what it suggests to you (there's a space for writing). If it's chosen for presentation on the home page--and in this forum--we'll get in touch with you to fill out the story.

Questions? Post them in a reply here.

SPECIAL: Dealing with Demographic Upheaval :: New Fed study says affect of aging Baby Boom much bigger than thought

learner — Thu, 20 Jul 2006 01:07:04 GMT

Author: learner
Posted: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 01:07:04 GMT
Topic Replies: 9

I preface these remarks by saying have have not checked the exact demographics so these comments are based on my gut feel. I do run a teacher supply store, have a wife who is and has been a professor of education for over 25 years and I have two daughters who are teachers. I believe that means I have an educated gut feel.

An area that has not been looked at closely may be the teacher population. There are more teachers than any other professional in the U.S. I believe. This means that the coming retirement of the boomer crop of teachers is going to have an major impact on school systems everywhere.
The boomer teachers are different than the young teachers of today:

The percentage of boomers that are teachers is higher, I would bet, than the following generations. So just finding one to one replacements for boomer teachers is going to be difficult.
The Baby Boomers are probably the most educated generation the US has ever seen. So as they are replaced the quality of teacher may decline.
Most boomers taught in order to bring a second income into the home or secondarily they returned to the classroom after a divorce.
Today's teachers are more often single than before and they stay single longer. This means that they will have less discretionary income to spend on supplemental materials for the classroom and their students.(better sell the store then, hey)
It also means that they will have a tendency to move for better pay or conditions more frequently than a married or divorcee with children(boomer teacher). Unions and strikes will not be needed to push up benefits and salariy demands, a mobile work force will do that.
Shortage of teachers will mean a change in how schools are organized and staffed. New models/alternative approaches to primary and middle school will be required. this will probably mean more independent study at the higher levels.
This could mean an increasing use of self paced computer programs for education especially as AI improves.
However at the same time we are going to need to invest in a new educational infrastructure to support this change in educational models we will probably be in the throws of a recession/depression caused by runnaway spending by the present administration
Conservative politicians have made teachers a scape goat for so many years that it has become ingrained into the conservative mind set. It is unlikely that this mindset will lead to increased funding as needed.

the are more issues here but this is enough to start the wheels moving.

SPECIAL: Dealing with Demographic Upheaval :: The FM Trend Survey forecasts the fallout from changing demography

mkb — Fri, 26 May 2006 14:39:21 GMT

Author: mkb
Posted: Fri, 26 May 2006 14:39:21 GMT
Topic Replies: 4

Not to mention that the X'ers are currently busily at work on the technologies that are going to truly revolutionize our lives. The convergence of bio, software, hardware, et al is going to usher in a change that will make the internet "revolution" look more skirmish.

SPECIAL: Dealing with Demographic Upheaval :: Highlights: Overlooked MARKET OPPORTUNITIES, new worker VALUES, international LABOR supply

michaelhopkins — Tue, 18 Jul 2006 09:15:12 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 09:15:12 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Demography & consequences of aging populations -- HIGHLIGHTS:

Overlooked MARKET OPPORTUNITIES,
New worker VALUES,
International LABOR supply

Note: Upon numerous requests, here are highlights from the several threads addressing the soon-arriving upshot of a critical demographic shift: the world's aging population. Tamara Erickson and Bob Morison, co-authors of the highly recommended new book Workforce Crisis, joined several discussions. (Find the main one, which includes an interview with Erickson, here.) Below are selected comments from Erickson and Morison on the main themes that emerged.

Workforce shortages worldwide
Tamara Erickson: The reality is most international markets are facing an even more significant shortage than we are. Growth in working age population will actually DECLINE in countries like Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Russia and Japan over the decades ahead. Many of these countries, particularly those in Europe, will address their shortages in part by tapping supplies from other countries -- those in Eastern Europe, for example, where both numbers and, even more importantly, skill levels remain high. But many countries will be competing to attract talent from increasingly limited sources. And the US is currently losing many of its most highly educated immigrants as they return to opportunities in other countries.

Industries facing skills and labor shortages right now
Bob Morison: Already, healthcare and various forms of engineering, including aerospace and petroleum, are struggling. Automotive is tricky -- GM and Ford have problems, but Toyota and Honda build factories. Jobs with a United Auto Workers package of security and benefits are disappearing, but the industry as a whole is not doing badly. Also note that GM's buyout offer to 100,000+ employees seems staggering, but under 20% of employees (typically far under) take such buyouts, so the resulting job loss amounts to a fraction of a fraction of a percent of the American workforce.

Life expectancy and birth rates contributing to trouble
Erickson: Another important point -- the Baby Boomer phenomenon is only one factor contributing to the dramatic changes that are underway in the workforce -- in fact, in my view, the least important of three. The two more important issues are the astonishing increase in life expectancy that we've experienced throughout the industrialized world over the last century, and the dramatic decrease in birth rates that occurs in country after country as the local economy develops and more women enter the workforce. These two factors will be with us long after the Baby Boom bulge passes through, and are present in most industrialized countries today. Together, they create a possibility for a workforce crisis (in the form of a shortage of available talent) in many areas of the world.

Possible strategies for tapping international labor sources
Morison: An international labor strategy might focus on countries with different (and younger) demographics -- India, Brazil, China (though so much is going on there -- the one-child policy with favoritism for males, eventual population shrinkage, the transition from an agrarian to an industrial base -- that the situation is very unpredictable). For these countries to emerge as talent suppliers for the world, they need infrastructure, both physical and educational. Brazil seems to be missing the opportunity. India and China are cranking out college graduates, which by sheer numbers makes a difference. However, much of their populations remain largely unaffected by the educational progress, and recent studies call into question the quality of the degrees granted. Fascinating developments all around.

Overlooked future market opportunities resulting from population aging
Erickson: I think there may well be some opportunities that are different than the ones everyone's been talking about so far. Most of what you read re business opportunities to serve the Boomers in "retirement" assumes, not surprisingly, that the Boomers will "retire." So the things most people focus on are business opportunities related to the use of leisure time -- travel, golf courses, hammock manufacturing, home projects -- as well as the inevitable focus on health care.

What if just a bit of my optimism re how Boomers will spend their time is more the norm? That would indicate a host of opportunities around, perhaps, helping people start new entrepreneurial businesses (classes in entrepreneurship, accounting services for small business owners, distribution services geared at helping small business owners get their products efficiently to market, etc.).

There are very likely to be lots of opportunities related to helping older workers re-engage with more traditional employment opportunities -- retraining, career counseling aimed at figuring out your second career, placement agencies specializing in this age group's needs. Across the workforce, I expect there to be a boom in "talent agencies" -- think of the film industry. Fifty years ago, the big studios "owned" their talent, just as most corporations have full time employees today. Now the talent is tapped on a project basis, via talent agencies, with the agencies increasingly putting together entire "packages" of talent in response to the needs of each film project. I expect that model will spread to more categories of employment in many industries over the years ahead.

Education will be big across the board -- as I've mentioned, we're simply not educating our youth with the skills needed for tomorrow's workforce. Companies are going to have to take on a significant educational burden, and many will prefer to do that through the expertise of an external provider. Many people will look at learning as one of their greatest leisure pleasures -- I know lots of people who are looking forward to those classes in art history or the clarinet that none of us have had time for while working hard and rearing children.

And, what about my view that we'll see a renaissance of charitable work -- any business ideas there? Ways to match people who want to give back to organizations that need them most? You can see my line of thought -- the key, I think, is to look beyond the obvious leisure opportunities (which will be there, too -- no doubt) to also consider work-related opportunities driven by these changes.

Morison: We also mention in the book another widespread opportunity (for those who anticipate it) and eventual imperative (for the rest) for any business in direct contact with consumers. As the older population grows, retailers, for example, will be smart to have their sales and service staff reflect the demographic of their customers. Especially where the customer seeks trusted advice -- CVS/pharmacy has already figured this out. So there's an opportunity to employ experienced and mature people in service of their experienced and mature customers.

Newly emerging worker values that employers will want to understand
Erickson: Though it's critical to note that worker values will be incredibly diverse, let me be reductive here for the sake of brevity and usefulness and offer my personal view of three key values that are emerging.

1. The re-surfacing of long-submerged questions re "has my life had meaning" -- One of the things we looked at in our work was how teenage experiences influenced each generational cohort's assumptions about how the world works. When people hit "mid-life" what they are essentially doing is taking stock in their life thus far, and the extent to which they're on track to meet their teenage goals and ideals. For many people who are hitting that reflective point today, the teen goals that resurface were ones formed in the wake of Watergate, Civil Rights, and Vietnam: a strong desire for personal activism and recognition that the world needs to change. More than their parents' generation, for whom upward mobility was more likely to have been a teen goal, this group is seriously questioning whether the way they've spent their life thus far has had the impact they wanted to have. For employers, this often translates into a growing lack of emotional engagement with work -- a sense that more people are present in body only, with hearts and minds occupied elsewhere. At the same time, the competitive challenges in many corporations are not ones that can be solved by people "going through the motions" -- innovation, collaboration are activities that require all hearts and minds to the fore.

2. Tribal behavior -- Many people in the 35 and under age groups have a loyalty to their network of friends that many people over 40 find difficult to comprehend. Coming from a generation who went where the company said to go, many older managers are astounded by younger employees who turn down opportunities for advancement if they mean relocating away from their "tribe." I've seen this played out at every level -- from kids who won't apply to colleages that their tribe is not planning to attend, to a (young) CEO candidate for a major firm who declined rather than relocate. This value, by the way, also links back to the teen experiences of this cohort -- working mothers and high divorce rates, created the first generation of what many call "latch key kids" -- teens who came to rely on their friends for significant support.

3. Reduced desire for "responsibility" -- One of the statistics that I personally found most surprising came from some research done by the Families and Work Institute. They do the same survey every 10 years; one of they questions they have asked is if you'd like a job with more "responsibility." The answers have plummeted over the past decade! Today only about a third of ALL women in the workforce say they'd like more responsibility, and only half of all men. The most amazing cut of the data to me was by age: in the under 23 category, the desire for more responsibility has fallen from (only) 80% in 1992 to an astonishingly low 60% in 2002. On the surface, this appears to imply that 40% of all our 22 year olds are content with the level of responsibility they hold today! Surely a much lower number than the percent of Boomers who would have had their hands up at the opportunity at that age.

SPECIAL: Dealing with Demographic Upheaval :: Will there be a sharemarket crash in 2010?

gillies — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 23:38:07 GMT

Author: gillies
Posted: Thu, 19 Apr 2007 23:38:07 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Several high profile commentators are predicting a sharemarket crash sometime after 2010. This is based on the premise that the baby boomers spent in their youth, bought shares in their middle age and will sell these shares to fund their retirement sometime in their sixties.

Harry Dent, the author of The Roaring 2000s, predicts that baby boomers will continue saving until 2009. Dent believes they will do so to such an extent that they will drive the Dow Jones index up to 21,500 and perhaps as high as 35,000 (it is currently around 10,000). Then large numbers of baby boomers will retire and start selling shares to change to more secure fixed interest investments.

Dent predicts that this will mean the stockmarkets will crash and drive the Dow Jones all the way back down to 10,000 in 2013 and as low as 7000 by 2023. He also believes that interest rates will plummet as demand increases for interest-bearing deposits. Dent predicts that industries will suffer as baby boomers reduce their expenditure to adjust to a lower income.

Businesses may face uncertainty about the level of consumer spending and this will impact on decisions on production capacity as well as marketing.

Robert T.Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad’s Prophecy, has the crash coming later, around 2016, more as a result of the collapse of the ERISA, There the USA Employment Retirement Income Scheme. This theory is based on the baby boomers turning 70 around 2016 and starting to withdraw from their 401(k) personal superannuation funds; their tax-free employee savings plans.

Kiyosaki believes that the massive under-funding of this scheme by huge corporates could lead to the collapse of the scheme. More than 20 companies have already defaulted on pension funds of more than US$100 million in the past three years.

The scale of the potential collapse was emphatically shown when United Airlines defaulted on US$9 billion pension obligations in 2005. Other airlines are in a similar position but the problem is not restricted to that industry. For example, General Motors has 2.5 retired workers on a pension for every one active worker as well as an unfunded pension debt of US$19.2 billion.

The total pension fund deficit for the S&P 500 companies is estimated at $350 billion. The US government liability for the unfunded portions is growing daily with no plan in place of how to handle this problem.

William Bonner in Financial Reckoning Day agrees with the studies that have found that the income of the individual is small in youth, high in middle age and small or nonexistent in retirement. But he feels the income of baby boomers in the eighties failed to match their expectations so they borrowed to maintain their desired high standard of living and this fuelled the rise of consumerism.

As a result, USA baby boomers did not save enough for their retirement and the average 50 year old baby boomer is still 60, yes 60 years away from having sufficient funds to retire on. In 2020, Bonner says there will be 116 million Americans older than 50 or 36% of the population of USA. Bonner wonders what will happen to the USA economy if these baby boomers decide they need to cut back their spending, pay off their debts and increase their savings in an effort to be better prepared for retirement.

Tim Bond, an economist at Barclays Capital in London, suggests in a paper entitled Dismal Demographics that the rapidly-aging world population is likely to be bad news for both shares and bonds. Bond argues that the long term outlook is likely to see slower economic growth, a gradual rise in inflation, a fall in share prices and rising long term interest rates.

However other analysts point out that the retirement of the baby boomer generation will not happen all at once in 2010. In fact, not everyone aged 65 will retire at that age. Many will want to continue working and others will have to work as they will not have sufficient money saved to allow them to retire. A recent USA survey showed that over 70% of baby boomers intended to work past 65. The US government is considering raising the retirement age as high as 69.

Plus there is the fact that the baby boomer generation is spread over many years and many will not be 65 until a decade after 2010. These younger baby boomers will continue to save and especially to spend as they will have reached their peak of disposable income. They also will be purchasing big ticket items with a view to having new cars and new appliances for when they do retire.

Other analysts make the argument that the newly-retired baby boomers will be a lot wealthier than previous retired populations that were prudent with their expenditure in retirement. The baby boomer generation has been estimated to be likely to consume more than twice as much as the working population. This means increased production will be needed.

The aging retirees will also require an increased number of services such as lawn mowing, housekeeping, house maintenance, leisure pursuits and the like. But there will be fewer people to provide those services as there will be little or no growth within the 18- to 35-year-old band. The combined impact of these factors produces the likelihood that prices of goods and services will increase as this demand from the baby boomers increases. This will make it more costly to retire and people will postpone their retirement to continue working.

For this reason, some financial analysts question just when baby boomers will shift their investments from shares to less risky bonds. Many consider this will happen much later in life than it did for their parents’ generation.

It is also possible that the value of the saved assets of the baby boomer generation will fall. If many of them are trying to unload their Telecom shares at the same time, the price will fall; especially as there are less working-age people to buy those shares. So if their asset values fall and prices increase dramatically, then many baby boomers will be forced to return to the workforce.

They will have to do so in order to meet the increased cost of goods and services when their anticipated income from investments has fallen.

More discussion on my website www.babyboomersguide.co.nz

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: Syndication and RSS on FutureMonitor™

lx_h — Mon, 08 May 2006 13:13:36 GMT

Author: lx_h
Posted: Mon, 08 May 2006 13:13:36 GMT
Topic Replies: 6

I use Google Reader. (http://www.google.com/reader/).
The best thing is that it gives me mobility and freedom to check my feeds from everywhere.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: How you can join in. (How to post. What to post.)

cretus — Tue, 25 Apr 2006 20:22:37 GMT

Author: cretus
Posted: Tue, 25 Apr 2006 20:22:37 GMT
Topic Replies: 1

A laser tuned and powered to destroy photosynthesis, thereby effecting chemical free agricultural control of both invasive plants, weeds, germinating invaders, and other pathogenic pests.. this laser device could be attuned to treat living plant surfaces, re insects, fungi etc. rendering cure but no harm to the plants under treatment.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: A guide to FutureMonitor's parts

michaelhopkins — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:00:50 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:00:50 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

A GUIDE TO FUTUREMONITOR’S PARTS
What exactly is going on here?

The foundation, heart, and center-city piazza of FutureMonitor is its discussion forums. Nearly every bit of content on the site is run through them, as you’ll see. (Only “The Experiment So Far”—FutureMonitor’s blog—and the FuturePolls are excepted. They each have their own locations, with easy access through the home page and elsewhere.) Here’s a roster of what you’ll find on FutureMonitor, with explanations of what the pieces are for:

"Featured posts" on the FutureMonitor home page
On the home page you’ll posts from many different FutureMonitor forums, each chosen by FutureMonitor editors for the home page because they're particularly worth your attention--usually because of timeliness, insight, provocativeness, or relevance. but are topics we’ve decided to draw your attention to because they’re unusually timely or interesting.

The Emerging Topics discussion forum
This will normally be the largest forum area (with the most topics posted); it includes subjects of every kind except for those particularly related to one of the other "dedicated" forums (such as the forums for the "Asimov Moment" or "START HERE"). This is where you'll find the results from the Inaugural FutureMonitor Global Trends Survey, for instance. And it's the best and easiest place to create a new topic of your own if you're not sure your idea fits in one of the dedicated forums.

Seen – snapshots of change
"Seen" is a forum for posting and discussing visual evidence of change--simple snapshots, usually, probably most often taken with cellphone cameras. Post-beta, the photos all will come from FM sensor network members (ideally they'll come from network members during beta, as well--but the charter group is so small that that may not work). Think of these pictures as just another way for you to share something you've observed that raises a question about where we're headed, or that tells us something about it. A “Seen” photo will always be posted on the home page, and FM network members can submit their own candidates for “Seen” through a link below the photo.

Next Subject – the network sets its agenda
The pair-wise sort is simply a way to enable the entire FutureMonitor sensing network to rank a set of subjects (or questions) collectively. The top-ranking subject when a sort is finished--the one the network has collectively judged most important to discuss--will be highlighted and developed as a focused discussion topic. The pair-wise sort is a simple way to aggregate the evaluations of all network members. With the March launch, each subject sort will run for two weeks. The results will be reported in this forum. This forum is also the place to propose questions or subjects that you want to see entered into a sorting session.

Asimov Moment – hints of the new, observed
An Asimov Moment is a moment when something makes you curious. It could be something you see, or something you experience, or something someone told you, or something that came to you in your head while taking the proverbial shower. It's not an epiphany, exactly (since epiphanies are all about answers), but it is a moment when you're struck by something that you feel is a piece of evidence--even you're not sure what it's evidence of. Not "Eureka!," but "That's funny...." (The source of inspiration for the “Asimov Moment” is Isaac Asimov’s observation that, “The most exciting phrase to hear, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not "Eureka!" (I found it) but "That's funny...."). You can submit your Asimov Moment ideas—observations, anecdotes, etc.—by going to the Asimov Moment space on most FutureMonitor pages and clicking the "submit an Asimov" link. Your submissions will be considered by us at FutureMonitor and chosen for posting and discussion.

Findings – what the network thinks
"Findings" is the place where the network's conclusions will be posted--"conclusions" meaning those trends, insights, or observations that have achieved collective consensus (or at least strong collective support). These are ideas that have been debated, discussed, argued, and sometimes even voted on. You can come here to see the most definitive wisdom of the crowd. IMPORTANT BETA-PERIOD CAVEAT: Because it will take some collective attention from sensing network members before trends can be tested and winnowed to the point of rising to a "finding," there will be none posted during the March launch. The first group will likely be posted in June '06.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: Ease of entry (or: FutureMonitor for first-timers)

michaelhopkins — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 12:16:39 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 12:16:39 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Ease of entry (or: FutureMonitor for first-timers)
How to get started, and how to get help

FIRST of all--to answer the question most likely to trip you up--you must register if you want to participate on FutureMonitor. It's all you have to do. Simply click the red Register to be a Member button at the top of the right-hand column on each page and register yourself by following the few, straightforward menu prompts. Once registered you will instantly be enabled to post comments in the discussion forums, submit Asimovs or Seens, and vote in polls and pair-wise subject sorts. Without registering, all you can do is read. And what fun is that? (OK, plenty fun. But still.)

What's in the "START HERE" forum
The rest of this post is just to explain what you'll find in this special "START HERE/User's Guide" forum. Following this topic you'll see other posted topics covering:
    --The point of it all. A brief description of FutureMonitor's purpose
    --How you can join in. How to post; what to post about.
    --The FutureMonitor payoff for YOU. How you can expect to benefit from FM.
    --A guide to FutureMonitor's parts. Descriptions of what you'll find on the site.
    --Syndication and RSS on FutureMonitor. How to make the site notify you about what you're interested in.
    --How-to's and some technical tips. Answers to many of the most common questions.
    --How to get help (and ask questions).

The stage that FutureMonitor is in, and where it's headed
Almost everything about FutureMonitor is an ambitious experiment--in near-term trend exploration, business-audience community building, and application of Wisdom-of-Crowds, collective intelligence methodologies. The site is new, and will remain in beta for a good while, probably. That makes you one of the earliest visitors and members--one of the pioneers. And we'll be grateful if you can help us figure out what's working and what isn't on FutureMonitor (both technically and conceptually).
    FutureMonitor's aim is a kind of balancing act: it's at root a community of people interested in better understanding the near-term future, but it's different from other community sites because ultimately it's less about the community than it's about the intelligence that the community helps gather, sift, and share. You can give us feedback by replying to any of the topics in this START HERE forum, or by creating your own topic within it.
    Next for FutureMonitor will be some months of tinkering and revision--most of it in response to what we learn from you. In the fall, you can expect some major new additions (such as prediction markets) and probably a redesign.

So please start. We're very pleased to have you.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: GOT A PROBLEM? (How to find help)

michaelhopkins — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:40:40 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 15:40:40 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

GOT A PROBLEM?
Some advice on finding help, plus an invitation to ask for it here

If you have any trouble using the site or any questions (or advice) about its content, there are three ways you can get help.

--The "help" page. This is the easiest and quickest way to get most questions answered. Just click the link on the top right of every page. Or click here. The link will take you to a list of frequently asked questions and answers.

--Contact us via email. Use the "contact us" link on the bottom of every page and write us an email in the window provided. Use it to ask us a question, lodge a complaint, or offer a suggestion. If it's help you need, we'll write back.

--Post a question here--either by replying to this topic or by creating a topic of your own in this forum ("START HERE"). See whether other FutureMonitor members have encountered similar problems or have similar critiques.

Please do not hesitate to contact us or post your questions/complaints. FutureMonitor is a work in progress, and your guidance--no matter how small the concern--will be invaluable.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: How To's and Some Technical Tips

lauramcgoff — Tue, 07 Mar 2006 13:22:59 GMT

Author: lauramcgoff
Posted: Tue, 07 Mar 2006 13:22:59 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Can I edit my own post?
You cannot edit the contents of a post after submitting it. If you strongly feel that your post requires editing, click on ‘Report to Moderator’ and send detailed instructions about the changes necessary.

I can’t seem to post or interact with the site. Am I doing something wrong?
You must be a registered member to interact with the site. Please check to make sure you are logged-in. If you would like to become a member, please click here. Remember, it’s perfectly okay to lurk…

What Are moderators?
There are editors and moderators who help refresh content on the site, but generally it is a moderator who oversees a discussion. In addition to sometimes leading the discussion, they have the ability to edit and delete posts, move threads, and perform other technical manipulations.

How do I start a new discussion?
Discussion themes are refreshed and posted only by moderators.

How do I start a new topic within a discussion?
Members can create a new topic in an existing discussion by clicking on the ‘Add New Topic’ link (the icon looks like this and can be found at the top on the left-hand side while you are in the topic level of a discussion forum).

How can I choose to be notified when there is activity in a discussion?
Only registered users may receive email notification. Click the paper airplane icon at the top left-hand side of either the topic level or the thread level of a discussion. Choosing the thread level notification will get you only activity within that particular topic thread. Choosing the topic level notification will get you activity across all the topics in a discussion.

FutureMonitor™ will send you an instant email communication confirming your notification choice and then notify you by email when there is activity. Hint: You can also choose to receive email notifications of new posts in a thread without posting in that thread. To manage or view all of your FutureMonitor™ notifications, click the ‘My Notifications’ link that is located at the top right-hand side of all levels in the discussions.

Is there a user ranking system on FutureMonitor™?
Yes, look for the ' Insightful' at the bottom of every forum post. Members are encouraged to use this ‘Insightful’ tag to rate valuable community contributions where appropriate. When it comes to qualifying for future community privileges, a member’s rank is based on post count and the number of ‘Insightful’ ratings given and received.

Someone has posted an offensive remark. How do I inform the moderator?
When you are logged-in click the ‘Report to Moderator’ link at the bottom of every post. This tool may be used to report a post to the moderator for any reason. The post will then be highlighted in red until the Moderator takes specific action.

How do I create and vote in a FutureMonitor™ poll?
Polls are created and posted by FutureMonitor™ moderators. Casting a vote is entirely optional and only accessible when you are logged-in. After your vote is cast, you will be shown results of the poll to date.

How do I connect with another FutureMonitor™ member off-line?
Providing off-line access information is optional. Clicking on a member's username will bring you to their public profile page. Hint: If you would like to connect with other members, go to your ‘Account’ page and click on the ‘Public’ Tab to provide your preferred contact method.

Can I search within the forums?
Yes. On the Advanced Search page you have the ability to search on a combination of keywords and filters. Current filters include: entire site, forums only, blogs only, by author, and by date range. A site wide search entry box is always available, located at the top right of most pages.

START HERE: A User's Guide to FutureMonitor :: The FutureMonitor payoff for YOU

michaelhopkins — Thu, 09 Mar 2006 14:57:52 GMT

Author: michaelhopkins
Posted: Thu, 09 Mar 2006 14:57:52 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

The FutureMonitor payoff for YOU
How you can expect to benefit from FutureMonitor

What you should find on FutureMonitor: ideas and insights about what business will be facing on the two-year horizon—threats, opportunities, risks, new conditions in the business environment. Also you’ll get the chance to enter discussions and shape them—testing your own ideas maybe, or posing questions that concern you. Lastly, you’ll get to see the networked collective intelligence experiment underway, and learn as we do what works, what doesn’t, and how network approaches can be applied.