FutureMonitor

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: FULL SURVEY RESULTS: the Inaugural FutureMonitor Global Trends Survey

mukesh11 — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:18:09 GMT

Author: mukesh11
Posted: Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:18:09 GMT
Topic Replies: 3

The mission of Future Monitor is to investigate the "two-year future," that is, to identify the trends of greatest impact to business in the next two years, and to explore their implications for managers and leaders. Future Monitor does this through a "global sensing network," an online conversation among thousands of business managers, thought leaders and trend observers around the world. The inaugural Future Monitor survey was conducted this year. In an open-ended question at the end of the survey, respondents were asked to name the three business, science/technology, public policy or social trends that will be affecting business two years from now. The respondents named 2,948 trends. Here is a shorthand list of the 15 categories of trends, concerns and developments most commonly noted by sensor network members: Demographic changes. Broad range of trends mentioned. Among them: the aging of Western society and all the attendant fallout, the rise of GenY, and changing ethnicities in the workforce of the West. Energy and power. Two threads emerged - one focused on the rise of sustainable power-source needs and development, the other on the effects of energy shortages on businesses of all kinds. Increased connectivity and information overload. This grouping focuses on the effects of technological enablement - the proliferation of mobile devices, convergence of communications technologies, and general universal connectedness. It also includes the many negative mentions of information overload as a source of challenge. China/Asia. Mainly these comments addressed the effects of the region's economic rise, though there were occasional naysayers. Environmental deterioration. A broad category, with mentions of such trends as global warming, climate change, and resource depletion. Globalization. Often mentioned by respondents literally with the recitation of just the word itself. One could argue that various effects of globalization show up in many other categories here. Health care. Closely tied to demographic changes, but mentioned often enough independently that it was separated out. Includes system dysfunction, cost problems, and legislative indifference. Clash of cultures. Covers any type of conflict that related to social, religious, or ethnic differences primarily the repeated mention of conflicts between the Muslim and Western worlds. ------------ smith11 Business Forums - Business Forums

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Evolved Marketing

jgunning909 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:07:30 GMT

Author: jgunning909
Posted: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:07:30 GMT
Topic Replies: 10

Kshannon...No problem here with a shameless plug! As a business consultant (primarily supply chain) I am intersted in viral marketing techniques that would link purchasers of transportation services (purchasing agents, VP distribution, logistics managers) with one another and with their vendors. Strictly B to B. Any ideas?

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Transferable Skills

jgunning909 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:03:32 GMT

Author: jgunning909
Posted: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:03:32 GMT
Topic Replies: 4

MKB--I believe that in most businesses the answer is no. from production techniques to market evolution, most businesses will be quite different in a five year span. Can the time lag be "made up"? Depends on the person for sure, but when qualified, current talent is often in reasonably good supply, why increase training costs, learning curves etc. with the stale model?

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: Transportation cost timebomb

jgunning909 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 15:59:14 GMT

Author: jgunning909
Posted: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 15:59:14 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Everyone knows that cost of transportation services of all types have greatly increased landed cost of raw materials and finished products. Most C-level executives understand that we are one 911 away from catastrophic increases in these costs. However, they do not understand that there are procedures (if undertaken now) which can position their businesses well ahead of the pack when transportation costs hit the stratosphere. But few implement these protocols. Why is it that such a huge line item is being neglected by otherwise forward-thinking businesses?

Asimov Moment -- hints of the new, observed :: The Shoeless Revolution

07174705 — Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:55:53 GMT

Author: 07174705
Posted: Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:55:53 GMT
Topic Replies: 5

In the scheme of things does any of this matter? The respect shown to the Whitehouse is based on the respect the Whitehouse shows to its citizens. One of the fortunate aspects of american culture is that its norms are often based on its historical migrant communities, so informality and the passion to challenge staid and archaic rituals is not frowned upon, but often celebrated. However, like any country, the US has its snobs, and one can see demarcation lines much more clearly in the USA than in other developed countries!

Emerging Topics--the general FM discussion forum :: A Q&A with leading prediction markets entrepreneur John Delaney

johnnyrocket7 — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 06:30:36 GMT

Author: johnnyrocket7
Posted: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 06:30:36 GMT
Topic Replies: 16

Ultimately, an information source such as this could be a valuable means of assessing market trends and enable even small businesses to prepare for serious market changes and effects. I don’t think this could be used exclusively, unless there was a serious increase the in volume of users. Due to the nature of anything socially network reliant, the information is only as good as the people and the source contributing to it. Perhaps it would be better to incorporate a system within your business that can work out the probability of a pre-determined question (For example “Will the revenue growth of your company increase by greater than 100% this year?”) using prediction markets, political change, and opinion polls. A collation of such information would have a really positive effect on decision making within business.
As an example, a previous post made reference to the online sportsbook and bookmakers community. Prediction markets could have an impact on the way that odds are calculated and the trends and habits of the sports betters, if they were used more widely. The example on tradesports.com is a perfect example of how if used more widely, could be used to determine opinion and effect gambling/sports predictions. This theory would mean however, that prediction markets would need to adapt and probably divide to become more industry specific, which I cant see happening.
All in all, I personally found the interview to be very interesting and well delivered, but I’m not convinced that the prediction market industry is the only way to go.
Thanks Johnnyrocket7

SPECIAL: Dealing with Demographic Upheaval :: Will there be a sharemarket crash in 2010?

gillies — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 23:38:07 GMT

Author: gillies
Posted: Thu, 19 Apr 2007 23:38:07 GMT
Topic Replies: 0

Several high profile commentators are predicting a sharemarket crash sometime after 2010. This is based on the premise that the baby boomers spent in their youth, bought shares in their middle age and will sell these shares to fund their retirement sometime in their sixties.

Harry Dent, the author of The Roaring 2000s, predicts that baby boomers will continue saving until 2009. Dent believes they will do so to such an extent that they will drive the Dow Jones index up to 21,500 and perhaps as high as 35,000 (it is currently around 10,000). Then large numbers of baby boomers will retire and start selling shares to change to more secure fixed interest investments.

Dent predicts that this will mean the stockmarkets will crash and drive the Dow Jones all the way back down to 10,000 in 2013 and as low as 7000 by 2023. He also believes that interest rates will plummet as demand increases for interest-bearing deposits. Dent predicts that industries will suffer as baby boomers reduce their expenditure to adjust to a lower income.

Businesses may face uncertainty about the level of consumer spending and this will impact on decisions on production capacity as well as marketing.

Robert T.Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad’s Prophecy, has the crash coming later, around 2016, more as a result of the collapse of the ERISA, There the USA Employment Retirement Income Scheme. This theory is based on the baby boomers turning 70 around 2016 and starting to withdraw from their 401(k) personal superannuation funds; their tax-free employee savings plans.

Kiyosaki believes that the massive under-funding of this scheme by huge corporates could lead to the collapse of the scheme. More than 20 companies have already defaulted on pension funds of more than US$100 million in the past three years.

The scale of the potential collapse was emphatically shown when United Airlines defaulted on US$9 billion pension obligations in 2005. Other airlines are in a similar position but the problem is not restricted to that industry. For example, General Motors has 2.5 retired workers on a pension for every one active worker as well as an unfunded pension debt of US$19.2 billion.

The total pension fund deficit for the S&P 500 companies is estimated at $350 billion. The US government liability for the unfunded portions is growing daily with no plan in place of how to handle this problem.

William Bonner in Financial Reckoning Day agrees with the studies that have found that the income of the individual is small in youth, high in middle age and small or nonexistent in retirement. But he feels the income of baby boomers in the eighties failed to match their expectations so they borrowed to maintain their desired high standard of living and this fuelled the rise of consumerism.

As a result, USA baby boomers did not save enough for their retirement and the average 50 year old baby boomer is still 60, yes 60 years away from having sufficient funds to retire on. In 2020, Bonner says there will be 116 million Americans older than 50 or 36% of the population of USA. Bonner wonders what will happen to the USA economy if these baby boomers decide they need to cut back their spending, pay off their debts and increase their savings in an effort to be better prepared for retirement.

Tim Bond, an economist at Barclays Capital in London, suggests in a paper entitled Dismal Demographics that the rapidly-aging world population is likely to be bad news for both shares and bonds. Bond argues that the long term outlook is likely to see slower economic growth, a gradual rise in inflation, a fall in share prices and rising long term interest rates.

However other analysts point out that the retirement of the baby boomer generation will not happen all at once in 2010. In fact, not everyone aged 65 will retire at that age. Many will want to continue working and others will have to work as they will not have sufficient money saved to allow them to retire. A recent USA survey showed that over 70% of baby boomers intended to work past 65. The US government is considering raising the retirement age as high as 69.

Plus there is the fact that the baby boomer generation is spread over many years and many will not be 65 until a decade after 2010. These younger baby boomers will continue to save and especially to spend as they will have reached their peak of disposable income. They also will be purchasing big ticket items with a view to having new cars and new appliances for when they do retire.

Other analysts make the argument that the newly-retired baby boomers will be a lot wealthier than previous retired populations that were prudent with their expenditure in retirement. The baby boomer generation has been estimated to be likely to consume more than twice as much as the working population. This means increased production will be needed.

The aging retirees will also require an increased number of services such as lawn mowing, housekeeping, house maintenance, leisure pursuits and the like. But there will be fewer people to provide those services as there will be little or no growth within the 18- to 35-year-old band. The combined impact of these factors produces the likelihood that prices of goods and services will increase as this demand from the baby boomers increases. This will make it more costly to retire and people will postpone their retirement to continue working.

For this reason, some financial analysts question just when baby boomers will shift their investments from shares to less risky bonds. Many consider this will happen much later in life than it did for their parents’ generation.

It is also possible that the value of the saved assets of the baby boomer generation will fall. If many of them are trying to unload their Telecom shares at the same time, the price will fall; especially as there are less working-age people to buy those shares. So if their asset values fall and prices increase dramatically, then many baby boomers will be forced to return to the workforce.

They will have to do so in order to meet the increased cost of goods and services when their anticipated income from investments has fallen.

More discussion on my website www.babyboomersguide.co.nz